Odds & Ends #8

1.  SO YOU THINK IT'S TOUGH to become a major league baseball player or an Olympian?  Imagine training to be a concert pianist.  Impelled by a love of music, classically-trained musicians often work extremely hard to excel, while knowing they may have little chance of "making it big."
   Incidentally, I considered learning to play Paganini's Moto Perpetuo, but was slightly daunted as to how to go about it, so I decided to listen to a Youtube video of it.  The first video I pulled up was of 40 Chinese youngsters playing it together by ear in perfect synchrony.  I'm no longer daunted; instead I'm merely discouraged (ha).  I think I'll learn something else instead.  :-)

2.  COWS IN ZOOS?...Perhaps they will be 20 years from now.  "Artificial milk" is not a new concept; it has been produced since 1912 in small quantities.  Today we can buy milk that's made from almonds, coconuts, rice, soy, even hemp.  If you've ever toured a dairy up close and personal, you probably like the idea of these substitutes...not to mention the fact that dairies are now lobbying hard to add aspartame to regular cow's milk without labeling it as such.  They probably figure if Monsanto can push through GMO products without labeling, they ought to be permitted to secretly put aspartame in milk.  Of course, this and other food industries have a backup plan if that doesn't work:  they'll attempt to hide it by labeling aspartame with a new, fifth brand name in an effort to fool consumers (after "nutrisweet", "equal", and "spoonful"):  "aminosweet."
   But why stop with milk?  Why not also produce vegetable-based beef and chicken meat as well?  Today you can buy "Beyond Meat" branded 'chicken' and 'beef' at Whole foods stores, and will very soon be able to buy them from Safeway and Target.  Supposedly, it's a pretty good approximation in both taste and texture, although I haven't personally tasted it.  Ultimately, it may take far less energy to produce and it represents a greener and potentially healthier option.  Note, however, it may also have to compete with "franken-meat", another emerging alternative that could be synthetically grown from (for instance) bovine stem cells.
  The Chinese have made plenty of illicit attempts to produce artificial food...reminding us that human advancements and new ideas can often have a dark side, especially when money is (almost always) involved.

3.  INTERESTING SOLAR STATISTICS:  Like wind power, solar power is now already cheaper than natural gas, coal and nuclear power in some areas of the country.  In the interest of continuing to "beat the drum" on solar, here's a chart showing solar cell efficiency trends; and here's a list of defunct solar companies.  This list is reminiscent of the list of defunct car companies or piano companies or, for that matter, wind turbine companies at the beginning of the boom in these respective industries.  It's part of the natural process of product evolution and growth.  Finally, here's an article that takes the reader through some simple math to dispel some persistent myths regarding the amount of land (or rooftop) required for solar power production.
  Alas, most consumers still haven't got the message that solar prices have plummeted.

4.  A CLEAR WINNER is emerging from Warren Buffet's bet with the hedge fund industry.  The idea that a hedge fund is likely to increase your returns is being proven as total bunk.  If you're invested in a hedge fund, you're merely making the hedge fund manager wealthy.  You'd be better off just putting your money in an S&P index fund.  Now ask yourself:  Am I smarter, more knowledgeable, more experienced, better informed and have more powerful tools at my disposal than a hand-picked group of the best hedge fund managers in the world?  If so, you can beat the stock market...go for it, you might get lucky.  Just a warning...the house (i.e., the S&P, DOW, etc.) usually wins.  Active trading is a zero-sum game of luck (or worse) that just runs up your expenses.  But if you insist on 'betting' on certain stocks, bet on businesses or technologies you're more knowledgeable about than most people, and then completely forget about your investment for several years.  I'll bet the vast majority of you would not be able to do this...and that's a pretty sure bet.  For most of us, it's much easier, rewarding and time efficient to just invest in a "boring" index fund.

5.  If you haven't seen it already, this documentary preview pretty much has the last word on childhood obesity.  It makes sense that the latest generation of kids have not suddenly become couch potatoes, are not suddenly lazier than all previous generations, and have not suddenly become more susceptible to food cravings than all previous generations.  And you can't blame it all on the internet, either.  Its thesis sounds pretty credible to me.

Can You Identify These Villains?

When we were children, we learned from our story books that evil people always look ugly. They have long, crooked noses and misshapen bodies and, for good measure, a witch's broom or perhaps some horns or some vampire-sharp teeth.  And bad people never slip up and do something nice.  Never.  Just as the protagonist never does anything bad.  Ever.

We all know that in real life it's not so easy to distinguish good people from bad people.  It can depend on your perspective; for instance, how they're characterized by the news media (freedom fighter or terrorist), or the clothes they wear (soldier or gang member), your relationship to them and so on.

However, most humans agree on certain universal truths--truths that define acts as good or evil, motivated by either kindness or malice, generosity or avarice, wisdom or folly.  The problem is, every human is, to some extent, a mixture of these qualities.  Compounding this problem is the fact that we don't always know how to put an appropriate weighting on different aspects of their character.  Is a very generous person who cheats on his taxes a good person or a bad person overall?  Or what about a loving parent and good father who cheated on his wife?  Or an honest, well-meaning politician who is addicted to heroin?  As if this weren't enough, there is much evidence that some of the worst criminals have certain abnormalities in their brain function, raising the question of to what extent their behavior should be blamed purely on their character or as the result of an injury, disease or genetic defect in their brain.

In most cases, people who personally knew a criminal (perhaps as a next-door-neighbor) were shocked to discover the truth about them.  They "seemed so normal."


So here's my challenge:  See how many of these well-known people, either from current events or from history books, you can identify.  (Hint:  These are all bad people.)  Scroll down for answers, after you've finished taking the quiz.


HOW MANY OF THESE VILLAINS CAN YOU IDENTIFY?

1. He was credited with leading the first public anti-smoking campaign. He wrote My Struggle Against Four and a Half Years of Lies, Stupidity and Cowardice, in which he expresses his frustration with the administration.  Some book critics say he is a paranoid racist who wraps himself in the flag and represents himself as a true patriot (in contrast to the "liberal" and communist ideologies he opposes) to gain credence with hardline conservatives. His book argues that the country needs to reclaim its self-respect, dignity and greatness in the aftermath of an extremely costly and humiliating war. However, one of the recurring themes is his animosity towards minority immigrants who (to paraphrase) "don't deserve to be citizens, are taking advantage of the system; are not loyal, trustworthy or productive; and who will be responsible for the economic ruin of the country."

2.  He started the "Eradication of Illiteracy" program designed to help illiterate people learn to read in 1997.  He was once an ally of the U.S., a country that tacitly supported his war against a neighboring country and sold him helicopters, materials to manufacture poison gas, nuclear development instrumentation and hazardous biological agents.

3. He was an accomplished leader who was called a genius of war.  He used his own money and time to train patriot forces.  Frustrated by troops who were poorly trained and equipped, he used is own money and time to train patriot forces.  He claimed several victories for the patriots, most notably the Battle of Saratoga--a turning point in the war that led to France entering the Revolutionary war as a U.S. ally.

4.  He liked Star Trek and science fiction novels, and became interested in computers in High School.  He was skilled enough that he managed to hack into government defense systems.  His high school recognized his computer talents, declaring him as "the school's most promising computer programmer" his senior year.

5.  He composed six operas, including Sea of Blood, which has recently received rave reviews in China.  His book, On the Art of Opera can be purchased at Amazon.com.

6.  He was once a promising amateur poet under the pen name "Soselo," known for such lines as:

The rosebud flowered

entwining the violet

and iris awoke

greening in the breeze.

7. Though he was expelled from several schools for bullying and defying school authorities, he eventually obtained a teaching certificate in 1901 and, for a brief time, worked as an elementary schoolmaster. He was an accomplished violinist. He was named after the leftist Mexican President (Juarez). He was once a rabid atheist, but once in power, he became pro-Catholic church. Pope Pius XI referred to him as the “man whom providence has sent us.”

8.  He once worked a suicide hotline and rescued a child from drowning.

9.  As a child, he frequently rescued stray pets, beggars, and fought bullies.  He preached integration, racial equality and nuclear disarmament.  He adopted 3 Korean children, a Native American child, and became the first white family in Indianapolis to adopt an African American child. He headed the Indianapolis human rights commission which desegregated hospitals, churches, restaurants and the police department.  He leaked information from American Nazi leaders on racial militarism.  He headed the San Francisco housing authority and ran free homes and food kitchens for the elderly and mentally ill.

10.  He was a fan of Miami Vice, The Wonder Years and MacGyver on TV.

11. He wrote "Never Learn Not to Love" for the Beach Boys.

(Scroll down for answers)

Answers:

1.  Hitler.  The title of his book was shortened to My Struggle (Mein Kampf) by the publisher.

2.   Saddam Hussein.  Donald Rumsfeld acted as a secret envoy to sell him the materials during his war with Iran in the late 1980's.

3.  Benedict Arnold

4.  Timothy McVeigh

5.  Kim Jong Il

6.  Joseph Stalin

7.  Benito Mussolini

8.  Ted Bundy

9.  Rev. Jim Jones

10.  Osama Bin Laden

11.  Charles Manson



The majority of this information was shamelessly copied from Cracked.com's "List of 23 most surprising facts about awful people."

Odds & Ends #7

1.  Here's a neat video (with some computer imagery) that shows how we landed the Mars rover.  And while we're at it, here's a video of Felix Baumgartner's jump from 24 miles above earth.  Or how about something closer to earth, like this mountain bike video, also these insane bikers?

2.  Anybody have a house cat like this?

3.  If you've been following the Edward Snowden saga, you might find this interesting.  Hopefully we won't be unfortunate enough to see a headline like "Nobel Prize winner imprisoned in U.S."
   Incidentally, would you like to compete with the NSA?  Better yet, get the NSA to pay you for spying on "persons of interest" (that's your neighbors, of course!)  This little helicopter drone is just the ticket.  Stalin would be proud.

4.  In a much earlier post, I mentioned once that I suspected that our current understanding of gravity would eventually give way to a better, more elegant theory.  Some new hypotheses that are potential candidates for a new theory of gravity are here, here, here and here.  Soon we may even be able to test whether Einstein's theory of gravity "falls apart" under extreme conditions and whether a new theory fits better--hopefully a theory that does away with singularities and eliminates the need for the "dark energy" and "dark matter."   Those "things" (in my opinion) ought to be looked upon as huge, inexplicable errors associated with our current theory rather than as some sort of mysterious but real phenomena.  Perhaps it would be too much to hope for a theory that seamlessly integrates with quantum theory as well?

12 Reasons Why Hiking the Minimum Wage is Not Necessarily Bad

I have read many articles (both pro and con) on the issue of raising the minimum wage, and here is my own conclusion.   Feel free to disagree.

There are many reasons why a minimum wage that is too low can actually be bad for the U.S:

1.  It forces the government (and taxpayers) to subsidize low-value labor:  Any minimum wage that results in the wage earner being eligible for food stamps and other government assistance means one thing and one thing only:  This person's labor is being subsidized by the government--by taxpayers.  We all know that when you subsidize something, you get more of it.  Therefore, a low minimum wage encourages companies to behave as if they are dealing in a third-world country.  As a result, they will exploit the cheap labor.  They will hire more low-wage employees. GDP per capita will go down.  That's bad for all of us.

2.  It discourages competitive technological advancements:  When given the option of hiring low wage workers, employers will not work to leverage and maximize their laborers' value via training or education.  They will not utilize modern, computerized, robotic technology and so will ultimately lose out to more advanced countries in the long term.  Overall GDP per capita will go lower and lower until the U.S. resembles a third world country.  Everybody will lose, since our "old and flabby" industry will look more and more like the obsolete technology associated with former communist regimes, while more and more U.S. factories close down because they cannot compete globally.  And once we reach that tipping point, it's almost impossible to reverse the downward spiral.

3.  Attempting to compete globally on the basis of low wages is a losing game:  We cannot possibly compete globally on the basis of "low" wages because there are plenty of developing countries that will always beat us soundly at that game.  Instead, we must compete via technology and know-how, which requires that we treat our employees like valuable assets with many potential skills to be developed, rather than like minimally-trained monkeys.

4.  It encourages illegal immigration of poorly-qualified workers:  Whether or not it is truly a bad thing, many people worry about the millions of illegal immigrants flowing into the U.S.  People immigrate illegally to the U.S. because they believe they can get a job requiring minimal skills.  They believe it because it is true.  They can work in a packing plant, or make beds in hotels, or pick fruit, or flip burgers.  (Many such jobs would otherwise quickly go extinct.)  So let's say you own a large orchard.  You can either invest in a big, expensive fruit picking machine that requires 5 educated, knowledgeable American operators, or you can hire 500 seasonal illegal alien fruit pickers.  For those who want to curb illegal immigration, it only makes sense that a higher minimum wage would encourage the orchard operator to purchase the machine and employ legal American citizens.  Bottom line:  a lower minimum wage attracts illegal immigration.  And if, on the other hand, you're actually wanting to attract immigrants, why not instead attract immigrants who have valuable job skills, who know they will be paid accordingly, and who will truly benefit this country?  Or at the very least, immigrants who are willing and able to work hard, learn English, get an education and learn a skill?  Once again, you get what you encourage.

5.  It perpetuates an unfortunate and dangerous myth:  A low minimum wage gives American children the false impression that they can leave high school and get a job without learning how to read and write.  Unfortunately, that job turns out to be a low-paying job that traps them for the rest of their lives. 
   Tragically, it has been reported that less than half (44%) of 25-to-34 year old high school graduates operate at literacy levels of 3 or higher. That means that more than 4 out of 10 working age adults don’t have the functional literacy skills to perform even the most basic jobs.  Yet we allow these people to graduate based on the erroneous belief that they will find "some sort of job."  What do we get instead?  People who either aren't willing or aren't capable of working at, say, a packing plant for minimum wage.  In other words, unwed mothers, drug dealers, welfare recipients and prison inmates. 
   The sooner we explode this diabolical myth, the better. It will force us to not allow children to leave the educational system until they are truly employable.  Our education system--which should include practical training programs--would still be far less expensive than the cost of welfare, crime and incarceration.  Having a decent minimum wage drives this ugly-but-true reality home to everybody--parents, educators, politicians and the students and job searchers themselves.

6.  It's demoralizing and short-changes human potential:  Psychological studies show that people conform to their own and others' expectations.  Implementing a low minimum wage and forcing people to go on welfare, food stamps or "disability" is demoralizing to them, beats them down, and quells the human spirit.  Worst of all, it causes them to be addicted to government assistance, which costs us all.  Why promote a tragic system like this?  Why not have a society in which every human being is treated with a certain minimum dignity and is expected and encouraged to learn and grow?  It costs the same either way.  The human landscape is littered with human failures who became failures because they were led to this expectation and embraced it.
  Pretending that people ought to be able to support themselves on a low minimum wage without government assistance is a deception that's not only unfair to unskilled laborers, it's unfair to everyone else as well.  Our economic system must be based on honesty, not deception; otherwise it soon crumbles...and it must be based on encouragement rather than demoralization.
  Is this a touch-feely reason that has more to do with psychology than economics?  Yes!...and for this very reason it just may be the most important argument of all.

7.  It doesn't solve the problem of unemployment:  The true unemployment rate in the U.S. is much higher than the official rate of 6.7%; it is estimated to be upwards of   37.2%  However, lack of jobs is not the primary reason behind high unemployment in the U.S.  It is lack of job skills.  You can lower the minimum wage down to 10 cents and it's not going to result in those good jobs being filled.
  So what about the "crappy" jobs...i.e., those unfilled minimum wage jobs?  If we have such a high unemployment rate, why aren't those jobs all filled immediately?  It's easy to say the reason is because they pay less than people get on welfare or dealing drugs or whatever.  That is often true...but would YOU be willing to work at one of those dead-end jobs for the rest of your life? Are you sure?  One thing we can say for sure:  It's NOT because the wages are too high.
  Would a lower minimum wage create more job openings?  Possibly...but not jobs that people would want.  Not jobs that would support them.  Not jobs that would actually raise GDP per capita.  Instead, it would create domestic service jobs (most likely filled by illegals) that would add virtually nothing to overall GDP growth, but would instead benefit wealthier people whose employees would be effectively subsidized by the government.  For instance, people might hire a few more servants (read: virtual slaves) who would tend to the geraniums in their back yard, scrub their floors, cook their meals etc.  At least half of this "catering to the privileged" would be funded by our own taxpayer dollars via food stamps, etc.  I don't know about you, but this is not the kind of society or country I would want to live in.  It's state-supported feudalism that further enriches the few at the expense of the many.

8.  Reasons typically used to argue against the minimum wage...are myths:  Here are three common reasons given as arguments against a higher minimum wage:
a)  The minimum wage kills jobs
b)  Increasing the minimum wage hurts small business
c)  Increasing the minimum wage only helps teenagers
These all sound like logical, believable reasons for opposing a minimum wage hike.  Trouble is, they aren't true.

9.  Increasing the minimum wage would help to mitigate wealth inequality:  Wealth inequality is growing at an alarming rate.  Half the world's wealth is now owned by 85 people (out of 7 billion total.)  A country like Mexico--which has the worlds wealthiest individual, Carlos Slim--illustrates rather nicely this grotesque wealth inequality.  Some people would call this a modern form of feudalism & serfdom.  At least with the feudalism of the early middle ages, the lord had some motivation to look after the welfare of his serfs.  

10.  Increasing the minimum wage helps fight deflation:  Increasing the minimum wage tends to result in all wages rising, not just the minimum wage.  This would fight deflation much more effectively than QE, and would would help the U.S. inflate its way out of debt.

11.  A low minimum wage does not make a country wealthy:  Some people question why we ought to have a minimum wage.  Some countries still do not have a minimum wage.  I would not want to live in most of these countries.  Germany is an exception, but I know from personal acquaintance that while they've increased their level of employment, their lowest wages are very low, and do not really qualify as "jobs" in that respect. Also, their government assistance programs are extremely liberal.  The U.S. minimum wage is actually relatively low compared to other developed countries that do have a minimum wage.

12.  The benefits of a decent minimum wage is supported by history:  The chart below shows two things:  
    a) a couple of hikes in the minimum wage in the 1950's--effectively doubling the wage rate!--spurred a long positive growth trend in GDP growth per capita.  (Imagine what people would say if someone proposed doubling the minimum wage rate today!)  
    b) The current minimum wage is not high by historical standards, especially in relation to GDP per capita.
No longer do we have children working 14 hr days in dirty, dangerous environments.  No longer are coal mining accidents commonplace.  Instead, workers are accorded a degree of dignity and respect...all because of laws that were passed as a result of the revulsion the American people felt when they observed the way some workers were being mistreated.  Did huge hikes in the minimum wage cause rampant unemployment and bring the U.S. to its knees?  History says that, on the contrary, it benefited everybody.

Here is an excerpt from a speech by Franklin Roosevelt to Congress in 1937, in regard to establishing minimum wages and maximum hours:

“Today, you and I are pledged to take further steps to reduce the lag in the purchasing power of industrial workers and to strengthen and stabilize the markets for the farmers’ products. The two go hand in hand. Each depends for its effectiveness upon the other. Both working simultaneously will open new outlets for productive capital. Our Nation so richly endowed with natural resources and with a capable and industrious population should be able to devise ways and means of insuring to all our able-bodied working men and women a fair day’s pay for a fair day’s work. A self-supporting and self-respecting democracy can plead no justification for the existence of child labor, no economic reason for chiseling workers’ wages or stretching workers’ hours. Enlightened business is learning that competition ought not to cause bad social consequences which inevitably react upon the profits of business itself. All but the hopeless reactionary will agree that to conserve our primary resources of man power, government must have some control over maximum hours, minimum wages, the evil of child labor and the exploitation of unorganized labor.”

Surprising Facts

Here are some facts that might surprise you.  I did not research many of these facts, but instead parroted them from other web sites, so I cannot verify the accuracy of every fact.


Facts that directly contradict popular perceptions shaped by the media:

1. The fastest-growing demographic on Twitter is the 55-64 year old age bracket.
2.  Einstein's brain weighed 12% less than a normal male brain.
3.  Napoleon Bonaparte was just shy of 5 feet 7 inches, or nearly 2 inches taller than the average Frenchman of his day--certainly not short by the standards of that time.  He would be about 1 inch shorter than a typical Frenchman today.  So much for the Napolean complex.
4.  Gallop polls done throughout the 1960s showed that young and educated people (meaning college students) were far more likely to support the war than their old and uneducated fellow citizens.  In fact, it was the over-50 crowd that opposed the war more than anyone.
5.  President Obama is the smallest government spender since Eisenhower. Okay, this is one viewpoint.  Another viewpoint which came out immediately afterward: "Obama is biggest spender in world history."  This is a great example of how two people can selectively use facts to come to opposite conclusions.
6.  Saturated fat and cholesterol are not unhealthy and will not make you fat.  A low-fat, high-carb diet (with lots of starches and sugars) is what makes you fat and unhealthy.  This has been shown by all recent health studies.
7.  63% of Arab-Americans are classified as Christians.

Facts that reflect disturbing trends:

8.  There are various ways of tabulating unemployment.  But if you count all the people who theoretically ought to be working based on age, etc.--which admittedly includes some people who never did seek employment--the unemployment number is 37.2% rather than the "official" rate of 6.7%.  (I do not know whether the 37.2% estimate includes the 3.4% of Americans on disability; if not, the true number might be worse yet.)  When the "official" unemployment rate goes down, what it often means is that more people have become discouraged and have stopped looking for employment.  20% of American households are now on food stamps--an all-time record.

9.  Here's one possible explanation for the seemingly intractable unemployment rate:  The U.S. has a (very) basic skills shortage that is getting far worse, relative to job requirements.  More than one-third (37 percent) of the 25-to-54 year old U.S. population does not have the basic ability to write a letter explaining an error on a credit card bill, use a bus schedule, or use a calculator to determine a 10 percent discount (Level 3 literacy).

   Tragically, it has been reported that less than half (44%) of 25-to-34 year old high school graduates operate at literacy levels of 3 or higher. That means that more than 4 out of 10 working age adults don’t have the functional literacy skills to perform even the most basic jobs. Worse, nearly 55 percent of workers 55 to 64 year old have literacy skills at level 1 or 2. For your reference, Level 1 literacy is the ability to locate the expiration date on a driver’s license, total a bank deposit slip, or sign their names; Level 2 is the ability to locate an intersection on a street map, understand an appliance warranty, or total costs from an order.
   These statistics may soon put us in the category of a developing nation.  And it has been shown that a 1% increase in literacy results in a 1.5% increase in GDP.  We're on the wrong side of that curve.

10.  Around 72% of black children are born out of wedlock. It was 25% in the 1960′s and that was considered an epidemic at the time.
11.  58% of the US adult population never reads another book after high school.  42% of college graduates never read another book.

12.  By the age of 4, the average child in a professional family has heard 20 million more words than a child in a middle-class family, and about 35 million more than a child raised in a family that receives welfare assistance.
13.  In 1955, there were more than eight workers paying into the U.S. Social Security system for every beneficiary. Today, that number is a bit less than three workers paying in, and it's projected to be close to two workers by 2031.  (Now do the math.)

Science & Health Facts

14.  50% of healthcare dollars in the US are spent on the last 6 months of life.
15.  You are nearly 5 times more likely to die falling out of bed then dying in a plane crash, and 15 times more likely to die in a car accident.  The 5 top causes of death in the U.S. are heart attacks, cancer, strokes, a land vehicle accident, and suicide.  Cancer will soon be the leading cause of death.
16.  CPR only works 2% to 16% of the time, depending on the situation.

17.  In the US, there’s an average of 217 millions white blood cells per liter of cow's milk. Those white blood cells come from the pus of the infected teats of the cows.*
18.  There are 10 times more bacteria cells in your gut than there are cells in your body.  (Bacteria cells are smaller.)  Researchers believe what's in your gut may affect your mental state.
19.  The acid in your (empty) stomach is strong enough to dissolve razor blades.  When your stomach is full, the acid level decreases from a pH of 2 to a pH of 6, making you more vulnerable to such things as salmonella.  The acid in a dog's stomach is slightly stronger yet (pH ~ 2).  The acid in a vulture's stomach is much stronger still (pH ~ 0), making them very effective disease-fighting agents that greatly benefit us humans by gobbling up potentially dangerous disease transmitters.
20.  If you could stretch out all of a human's blood vessels, they would circle the world twice.
21.  The surface area of a single human lung is equal to that of a tennis court.
22.  Every year, 98% of the atoms in your body are replaced.
23.  The world's most toxic and deadliest substance is a new type of botulinum toxin.  10 to 12 grams of it would be enough to kill the entire human population of the earth.
24.  In the unlikely event that all the polar ice were to melt, the sea level all over the world would rise 500 to 600 feet. As a result, 85 to 90% of the Earth's surface would be covered with water as compared to the current 71%. The U.S. would be split by the Mississippi Sea, which would connect the Great Lakes with the Gulf of Mexico.
25.  Since the 1950s, around 90% of the large predatory fish in the ocean are gone.

Historical Facts:

26.  The federal government is still paying two Civil War pensions (to children of soldiers).  The last Civil War widow died in 2003.*
27.  The maximum area of the Roman Empire was an impressive 2.51 million square miles.  It was actually only the 19th largest empire in history.*
28.  All British tanks since 1945 have been equipped with Tea-Making Facilities.*
29. In 1598, Queen Elizabeth ordered a banquet featuring a food source from the new world--potatoes. The royal cooks, having never prepared potatoes before, threw the veggie away and cooked the green part or eye instead, sickening the whole royal court.  Elizabeth banned the vegetable for 100 years.*
30.  The current 50 star flag was designed by  then 17 year old Robert G. Heft, as part of a school project.  For his effort, he received a grade of B-.  When his design was chosen and adopted by presidential proclamation, his teacher changed his grade to an A.*
31.  Over 3500 hours of recordings were made by the taping system established in the White House and other executive offices by Richard Nixon during his presidency.  Of these, only about 200 hours contain references to Watergate.  By the time of Nixon's death in 1994, only 63 hours had been made public.*
32.  Seven of the ten deadliest wars were fought in China alone.  More people died in each of the two largest of these wars than in WWI.*
33.  The pony express is part of the lore of the Old West.  Most people don't realize that it lasted barely nineteen months, from April 1860 to October 1861.*
34.  John Tyler became the 10th president of the United States in 1841.  He still has two living grandchildren.*
35.  In 2005, George W. Bush was nearly assassinated in Georgia by a man named Vladimir Arutyunian, who threw a grenade at the president.  It did not explode.*
36.  The citizens found guilty during the Salem witch trials were not actually burned at the stake. They were hanged.*
37.  At its height in 480 BC the first Persian Empire covered 44% of the world's population, the highest of any empire in history (the British had just 20%).  This was just 70 years after Cyrus the Great began his conquests.  Alexander destroyed this empire just 150 years later.*
38.  The pyramids weren't built by Egyptian slaves.  They were built by paid laborers.*

39.  In the 18th century it was believed that blowing tobacco smoke up someone's rectum would resuscitate them from drowning.  It was such a widely held belief that equipment was hung up all along the Thames in London.
40.  Jesus' real name was Yeshua (as in Joshua).  The New Testament was first written in Greek, not Hebrew or Aramaic.  Greeks did not use the "sh" sound, so "s" was substituted.  Then, to make it masculine, they added another "s" at the end.  The "J" didn't even come until the late middle ages, making it "Jesus."  This etymology is actually a simplification of the real story that may trace the name's earliest origins from a combination of YHWH and Hoseah.
41.  After Lewis and Clark's Corps of Discovery made it to the Pacific, they spent the Winter of 1804-05 trading what was left of their personal effects for sexual favors from the Clatsop women, who gave them syphilis.  Because the prevailing treatment was an oral dose of mercury, we can say with certainty where many of the Corps' camp latrines were located, thanks to the mercury that remains in the soil today.*
42.  80% of all Russian males born in the year 1923 didn't live past their 22nd birthday.
43.  Lincoln's Gettysburg address was most likely influenced by his sometime reading of Pericles' Funeral Oration by Thucydides, which praises the uniqueness of Athens' commitment to democracy.
44.  Non-violent resistance was a concept expounded upon by Tolstoy in his writings as a result of studying the Bible.  Gandhi was a friend of Tolstoy, and the older Tolstoy's influence on the young man was profound, despite their religious and cultural differences.  Gandhi influenced other later reformers such as Martin Luther King.
45.  Bill Clinton sent a total of two e-mails during his presidency.

Unfortunate Facts

46.  More American soldiers die from suicide than from fighting in combat.
47.  Since 1989, 303 convicted felons have been exonerated by DNA evidence.  18 were on death row.  25 percent had confessed.  28 of them pled guilty.  Meanwhile, in 2013, 39 inmates were executed in the U.S.  The U.S. is among 20% of the countries in the world still practicing capital punishment in law and in practice...countries such as Iran, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, China, Pakistan, Sudan and South Sudan.

48.  The amount of American dollars spent on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars could have paid for solar panels on the roof of every house in America and dramatically spurred our economy as well as eliminating a significant portion of U.S. greenhouse gas.

49.  The US spends $660 billion a year on the military, or about 20% of the federal budget. (The total the US has spent on NASA in its 55 year history is $526 billion.)  Yearly expenditures on foreign aid total about $33 billion, or 1% of the federal budget.

50.  The budget to send the Curiosity Rover to Mars is less than the worldwide military expenditure for 13 hours.
51.  In the last 3,500 years, there have been only 230 years of peace throughout the civilized world.
52.  Young black males without a high school diploma were more likely to be in prison or jail (37 percent) on any given day in 2008 than to be working (26 percent).  The U.S. has the highest incarceration rate in the world.
53.  70% of murders in Detroit go unsolved.

*Shamelessly copied from this source

Foods to eat if you're living off a shoestring

A recent article in U.S. News lists 7 foods to eat "if you're broke."  Some of the ideas were good, but the article ends up talking about a couple who ate $2 protein bars every three hours throughout the day, plus some pudding.  Aack.  That adds up to $600 per month just for the protein bars--hardly a good suggestion for someone who's "broke".

Granted there are some other articles that are excellent, such these:
What healthy food to eat if you're broke, also this and this and this article
(Un-healthy) food to eat if you're flat broke and only have microwave; also this article
What to eat if you're living on the streets (hopefully you won't need this!)
What to eat if you're broke but picky

It's possible to eat junk food when you're poor--but it's also possible to eat very nutritious foods for the same amount of money.  You still have a choice.  Unfortunately, ignorance is often linked to poverty, which of course means poor people are more likely to eat non-nutritious junk food.

So this inspired me to make my own list.  It's admittedly similar to the articles referenced, but includes a few additional items, all of which are healthy:

Cheap, healthy foods to buy:
1. White rice (or preferably brown rice if you can handle the taste).
2.  Bulk dry beans, lentils (my favorite), split peas, pearled barley, couscous, rolled oats, quinoa, etc.
3.  Potatoes; sweet potatoes/yams (if on sale); celery, onions, carrots etc.
4.  Salad greens of all types (not bagged, and not iceberg)
5.  Eggs
6.  Cabbage
7.  Bagged (or steam-able) frozen vegetables, all types
8.  Canned mackerel (super healthy & cheap; tastes like sardines; good on bread)
9.  Spaghetti & big jar/can spaghetti sauce (when on sale)
10.  Large flour tortillas (for burritos)
11.  Flour (possibly with yeast already included) for baking bread in breadmaker
12.  Lime or lemon juice to add to your water; this reduces any craving you might have for soda pop
13.  Turkey burger (when on sale; substitute for hamburger, or mix with hamburger)
14.  Ham & chicken when on sale
15.  Bananas (a great snack or breakfast entree)
16.  Bulk popcorn (an inexpensive snack)
17.  Other fruit (in season or on sale)
18.  Small quantity of instant mashed potatoes, dehydrated or condensed milk, and egg substitute (to eliminate wasteful "emergency" trips to the store)

Things to own:
1.  Used bread maker (about $5 from a thrift store or garage sale)--if you're into that sort of thing
2.  Big pot or stock pot, and big frying pan (so you can make and freeze many portions)
3.  Used large crock pot (about $5 from a thrift store or garage sale)
4.  A hot air popcorn popper (about $5 from a thrift store or garage sale)
5.  Lots of small plastic containers with lids for frozen storage
6.  Lots of useful utensils: measuring cup, knives, wooden spoon, spatula, cutting board, etc. (thrift store)
7.  A deep freezer or a refrigerator with a decent size freezer
8.  Access to some good, cheap, simple recipe books; or some cheap recipes online

Strategy:
1.  Buy in bulk
2.  Cook a bunch at a time.  Otherwise, you're wasting time.  Time is money.
3.  Freeze lots of "leftovers" (to the extent that you have freezer space).
4.  Shop at discount grocery stores. (Aldi's or Save-a-lot etc. are better choices than Walmart.)
5.  Stock up on stuff that's on sale and advertised on the front page of grocery flyers.
6.  Make full use of crock pot with easy crock pot recipes (or just dump stuff in & see what happens).
7.  Print out these kitchen cheat sheets and keep them handy in the kitchen (spice sheet on top).
8.  Occasionally make a whole bunch of burritos and freeze them--meat, bean, breakfast, whatever).
9.  Become knowledgeable about spices; keep a good selection on hand (see cheat sheet).
10.  Learn how to properly chop an onion.  Also how to saute or caramelize them.  Onions are your friend.  Really.
11.  If you must eat at restaurants occasionally, then keep paper coupons in your glove box or electronic coupons in your smartphone.  Find "2-for-1" or similar deals if there are two of you.

Super cheap 2 lb bread recipe for bread maker (reduce ingredients for a smaller loaf):
(This proves a bread recipe doesn't have to be complicated.  Don't buy expensive bread maker mixes.)
4 cups flour (up to 1/3 of this can be whole wheat flour)
~1.5  tsp salt
~1.5 tsp yeast (if not already included in flour)
1 3/4 cups warm water (or maybe slightly less)
Dump in the bread maker and forget about it!  You can also bag up multiple bags of the mixed dry ingredients to make it even easier.  And you can add anything else you feel like, if you're adventurous.

Odds & Ends #6

1.  Sesame Street's Oscar the Grouch is singing a new tune that supposedly teaches kids about self-restraint and resisting temptation.  It's kinda cute.  Only, "stop looking at those cookies, Oscar!  Oh, there you did it, couldn't resist for more than a few minutes, could ya?"

2.  I'll admit it--I've started to take a few health supplements, after shunning them for years.  However I'm aware of excerpts such as this, that assert we Americans usually do not benefit from multi-vitamins, and that some vitamins actually increase the risk of cancer and heart disease.  (A small minority of studies showing a contrary result can sometime result in "publication bias" or, more often, reader selection bias.)  Even anti-oxidants have come under a cloud of suspicion.  More is not always better...so it goes.  It's probably more important what we avoid eating, and I'm not sure even that is anywhere nearly as important as either heredity or the mind-body connection.

3.  A recent article states that China is the largest foreign investor in U.S. firms that are critical to national security.  I guess China figures this is more valuable than our worthless government bonds.  Soon, our gigantic, bloated military and security agencies will be protecting assets that mostly belong to China.   ;-)

4.  Watch this underwater wheelchair lady.  Now ask yourself what it was you thought you couldn't do.  (Reminds me I haven't done any scuba diving in quite a while.  :-)

5.  If you're into scientific stuff (or even if you're not) here are some cool videos.

6.  This guy will hopefully make you more open to classical music and inspire you as well.

7.  Here is a Ted talk playlist on some pretty cool animals.

Economic Recovery or Stock Market Crash?

How much higher can the stock market go before it corrects?

Nobody knows. People predicted the bursting of the housing bubble literally years before it happened. I doubt it will take years before the stock market dips...more likely weeks or months.

In any case, consider these facts. As of this writing (Dec 9, 2013):

Margin buying of stocks is at an all-time high.
Stock indices keep setting record highs.
Rich valuations: The Russell 2000 average P/E = 84.5 (!) compared to 29.1 one year ago.
Consumer confidence is at a 7 month low, and retailers had weak Thanksgiving sales weekend.
VIX (volatility index) is extraordinarily low
Looming debt ceiling fight, theatrics and government dysfunction, Act II.
Looming repeat of "taper" talk. (It may never happen, but that's another story.)
A recent survey showed 57.1% of investors are bulls, only 14.4% are bears (a bearish signal)
Profit growth is not sustainable--it has been fueled by cost cutting, inventory increases and stock buybacks using borrowed money.
Gold and silver have been heading into the toilet.
Global stocks have been on the longest winning streak since 2009, with not even a minor correction.
Pundits are saying "relax; stocks will continue to go up, because they always do in December."

Companies are still pulling shenanigans despite all the empty talk about financial regulation...here's just one tiny example:   IWM, the Russell 2000 etf, is sold by Blackrock, the "worlds most respected and prudent fiduciary."  They advertise a 29.59 average p/e ratio (instead of 84.5). Want to know how they do it? If you read the fine print, they calculate it like this: Each holdings' p/e is the latest closing price divided by the latest 12 months' earnings per share. Negative earnings are excluded, extraordinary items are excluded, and p/e ratio's over 60 are set to 60.

Here's an even more bizarre and shady instance of what can only be labelled as pure evil--and yet something that is not even regulated, and thus not illegal!  Blackstone Group conspired with a client to make a late loan payment so that its own credit default swaps that it owned relating to that client company would pay out $15.6 million to Blackstone.  Incredible...this is analogous to taking out multiple fire insurance policies on your neighbor's house and then making a deal with your neighbor to light it on fire so you can collect.  Since the world is awash in $800 trillion in derivatives such as this (or about 10 times world GDP), this sort of corruption has ominous implications...in addition to the very existence of all these derivatives themselves--but that's another story.

In the interest of fairness and objectivity, there ARE some significant signs of a rebounding economy. The U.S. GDP grew by 3.6% in the 3rd quarter. The U.S. just reported the 4th month of solid job gains. It's possible that real increases in gross income (versus gross margin expansion) may yet happen.

The CAPE (Shiller) P/E's on the major indices (other than the Russell 2000) are still "reasonable" by historical standards, if you consider "reasonable" to be 20.8 versus a historical average of 15.8 for the S&P 500. There are some good reasons to be wary of the well-intentioned but overly-simplistic Shiller P/E. For instance, artificially low interest rates and a huge market fluctuation over the last 10 years make its calculation a bit questionable, although it is still better than using the regular P/E ratio.

So the U.S. stock market might not crash.  Perhaps there will only be a modest correction.  But if it does crash, it probably won't be alone. The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Bank of England have all been offering super cheap financing (i.e., "printing money like crazy") and keeping interest rates artificially low. This is influencing investors to become more highly leveraged and increase their risk appetite. It is also fueling bubbles in riskier bond markets and in all types of other investments, all over the world. For instance, more money is now shifting to riskier developing countries and previously shunned countries such as Russia and Greece.  (Yes, that's right, most of the QE stimulus may end up outside the U.S.)

If a major correction is in the cards, I don't know how soon it will happen--it could still be many weeks or months away. But I find it a bit concerning. I don't know how this is all going to end up, but I believe it will be a global phenomena that will leave a lot of social and political turmoil in its wake, including in the U.S. this time around. I suspect prices of everything from stocks to bonds to every other type of financial investment all over the world may go down in unison--but again, this is only speculation on my part. This might be accompanied by dollar debasement or even a dollar collapse, especially if the U.S. starts to lose its reserve currency status due to reckless 30% budget deficits each year (papered over by QE). However, that is a far more ominous subject that is better explained by a plethora of doom-and-gloom prepper-type websites...I'd rather not go there.

Again, there's always the possibility that I'm dead wrong about a major stock market correction being in the works. The U.S. economy could continue to improve, stocks continue to advance, QE winds down in a way that avoids crashing the stock market or the housing market, and--perhaps least likely--Congress starts to get its act together and implements sound fiscal policy while avoiding sending the economy into a tailspin.

Perhaps the most likely scenario is also the most boring: A stagnant, sideways stock market for the next several years.  This would mirror what happened in Japan during their "lost decade".  In fact, from a historical standpoint, the analogy is eerily prescient.

Have a nice day. It's only money.

Odds and Ends #5

1. We always suspected that musical tastes are correlated to our character/habits, our culture and even our individual mental capacity.  Some people--such as gangs of troubled youths--really do not like classical music, for instance.  Other people--such as Somali Pirates--do not like listening to Brittney Spears.  (Perhaps this is their only redeeming quality?)  Here are 6 songs that have been used to torture and intimidate, with rather mixed success.

2.  In 2012, the Obama administration finalized regulations requiring new vehicles to average 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 (in 13 years), up from 28.6 mpg at the end of last year. The requirements will be phased in gradually between now and then.  Many Republicans (notably Mitt Romney) opposed this doubling of the required fuel mileage, saying it was technically too difficult and predicting it would make cars too expensive.  (Meanwhile, Volkswagon recently introduced the XL1, a car that gets up to 270 mpg.)  So how far has the the U.S. come in fuel mileage?  Does it really require great leaps in technology?  Here's a list of high-fuel-mileage (and mostly inexpensive) cars made in the last 30 years:

• 2008 Toyota Prius Hybrid, 48/45 mpg (city/highway), 1 liter gasoline/battery

• 1995 Honda Civic HB VX, 1.5 liter, 47/56 mpg, gasoline

• 1990 Suzuki Swift, 1.0 liter, 46/50 mpg, gasoline

• 1985 Honda Civic CRX HF, 51/54 mpg, gasoline

• 1981 Volkswagen Jetta, 41/57 mpg, diesel

• 1980 Honda CRX, 50/60 mpg, gasoline

In light of this list, the relatively expensive Toyota Prius doesn't seem quite the amazing technological breakthrough it's often touted as.  It's quite possible the U.S. automakers will easily beat the Obama administration's fuel mileage regulations, not because of the regulations themselves, but because of global competition and demand for more fuel-efficient cars.

Rich and Poor: The Divide

What do most Americans think about the distribution of rich and poor?  

Here's a video that summarizes some survey information and compares it to factual information.  It will shock you.  This video as well as Credit Suisse’s new Global Wealth Report set forth some shocking facts, such as "just 1% own 46% of the world, while the bottom 80% of the population has only 7% of the nation's wealth between them"....and "the situation today in the U.S. is...worse than history’s worst. Twice as bad as in ancient Rome, worse than in tsarist Russia, worse than in America’s Gilded Age, worse than in modern Egypt, Tunisia or Yemen, worse than in many banana republics in Latin America. Yes, today’s inequality is even worse than experienced by slaves in 1774 colonial America."  It compares our situation today with the situation just prior to the French Revolution.

Nick Hanauer is a respected entrepreneur and venture capitalist.   His TED talk disputes the idea that the rich are job creators.   His presentation was apparently considered to be so controversial it was removed, as discussed here.  A Forbes article naturally provides a rebuttal to Nick's presentation with predictable "let them eat cake" arguments such as the one that implies poor people can invest in stocks and get the lower 15% capital gains tax rate just like rich people can, so the system "must be fair".  If you like melodrama, here's a debate between Hanauer and Neil Cavuto on Fox News.

Are Hanauer's assertions supported by actual data?  Yes.  For example, here's a graph (copied from Wikipedia) demonstrating that, if anything, lowering taxes on the rich actually hurts--rather than helps--the economy.

A 2012 study by the Tax Justice Network indicates that "wealth of the super-rich does not trickle down to improve the economy, but tends to be amassed and sheltered in tax havens with a negative effect on the tax bases of the home economy," resulting in a greater government deficit and a more sluggish economy.  Some people might attempt to dodge this fact by asserting that taxes in general are too high.  In actuality, the federal tax rates had fallen to the lowest level in 30 years when President Barack Obama took office — and have fallen more since that time.  Top federal tax rates and capital gains rates (on the rich) are indeed very low by historical standards.

"Trickle down theory" is not (and never was) a valid economic theory.  It was a pejorative phrase once used by Will Rogers as part of a joke.  If it actually did work, the Middle Ages and serfdom would not have lasted for hundreds of years.  In fact, this "theory" has been completely refuted throughout history, up to the present day.  Reagan's version of "trickle down theory" was "supply side economics".  It didn't work.

The vast majority of super rich people are not inventors, startup entrepreneurs, angel investors or venture capitalists...they simply hold large investments that compound automatically and effortlessly, often in offshore tax havens.  The poor make their money via toil and sweat.  They do not contribute a huge amount to the tax roll for one reason and one reason alone:  they are too poor to have any money left over after paying for food, clothing and shelter.  If you consider yourself a Christian and are tempted to believe the poor are not paying their fair share, you might want to pick up a Bible and read Mark 12:41-44.

As referenced in a previous blog post, this article suggests that the government's QE program--while well intentioned--has done much to further exacerbate the growing inequality, as well as impeding and delaying--rather than spurring--job growth.  However, lacking any fiscal policy from Congress, it was the only thing that could be done, and it does seem to be helping Japan, at least from the standpoint that it's devaluing their currency and making it easier to export.  Europe has already demonstrated to us that the opposite approach--austerity--doesn't work.

Some people believe our problem with wealth inequality lies with the government--ironically, rather than accusing it of favoring the rich, it's instead believed to be too big, too inefficient, unaccountable to its constituents, pandering to the poor, etc.  This is a vague accusation that is usually accompanied by anecdote but rarely by actual facts or statistics.  In fact, under President Obama's term, the government had shrunk even more than the private sector!  Meanwhile, the divide between rich and poor has only accelerated.

A good education has traditionally at least bought us a ticket to the middle class.  However, the middle class has been shrinking at an alarming rate.  We all should be worried, especially because of its implications regarding the lack of appropriate job skills and declining levels of education and literacy in the U.S.

Eventually there will be a backlash to the growing divide between rich and poor, and--lacking either an economic or political solution--it could potentially turn into a violent class struggle, which would be tragic for all of us.  The good news is that it is not too late to do something about it.

There are already hints of a backlash, even in the business community--such as this observation that capital investment and wages have been falling while at the same time, corporate profits have been rising; or this criticism of Walmart employees' low wages.

Here are the author's suggestions:

1.  Understand and discuss the aforementioned issues with your friends.

2.  Vote for politicians--regardless of party affiliation--who are educated, reasonable and willing to negotiate on tax and spending issues...in other words, pragmatists rather than ideologues. Vote for a politician who strongly believes in educating our future workforce and giving them appropriate skills.  Do not vote for any politician who believes in the myth that "big government" is somehow to blame for all our problems, or that lowering taxes on the rich will spur job creation.