Wednesday, January 23, 2013

The Explosion In Solar Energy

A while back I predicted that in just a few years, Solar Energy would dominate. I predicted that once it hits critical mass, manufacturers won't be able to manufacture solar panels fast enough, and energy companies will wonder what hit them. This sounded crazy, but I did not think it was crazy. In fact, I'm even more sure of it now.

Here are some facts:

--The cost of solar panels has tumbled 80% in the past five years.

--It was already cheaper to install solar panels than a nuclear plant.  Now, it's even cheaper than installing a coal plant in many places.

--All the U.S. energy capacity added (44 MW) in the month of March 2013 was solar--and that doesn't even include rooftop installations.  It is estimated that 4.2 GW of solar will be installed in 2013 in the U.S.  It will soon overtake wind energy installations (another more indirect form of solar energy) which amounted to over 13 GW last year.

--Warren Buffett owns a lot of solar investments, including 100% of the two largest solar installations in the U.S.  Assuming he's a shrewd investor and hasn't suddenly gone bonkers...well, you get the picture.

--This article dispels completely any myths about solar "taking too much space" or "never being able to compete with coal" or "never being able to provide all our energy needs."  Based on this article's predictions, a quiet revolution in energy is occurring and will greatly accelerate as solar becomes even cheaper than coal.

--The average cost (nationally) of installed solar power is $3.45/watt. Compare this to about $7/watt for a new nuclear plant. (Financing costs and installation time drive much of this cost.) Not to mention, the energy produced by the nuclear plant will cost $0.06/kW-hr whereas the solar energy is free.

--Hawaii has led the way in Solar, due to its expensive grid energy costs, its generous solar installation tax breaks and its abundance of sun. A typical home solar system in Hawaii pays for itself in 4 years and generates $64,000 in energy savings over 20 years. From 2001 through 2007 a total of only 386 NEM systems were installed across the state of Hawaii. By 2011, that number had risen to 9,625. 2012 will have proven to be an even more explosive year for installations.

--Here's a handy chart showing estimated cost and savings associated with a home solar installation based on location.

--There's no longer any excuse for homeowners in many areas to say "they cannot afford solar".  The solar companies are financing the installations themselves, and then selling the energy to the homeowner at a reduced cost for the privilege of installing the solar panels on his roof.  It's a "can't lose" strategy for both parties.

--Solar cell efficiency has steadily climbed. The new world record for solar cell efficiency (not yet in production) is 44%. In another month or two, this record will have been broken again.

--Efficiency has also climbed for thin film solar cells and is now upwards of 20%. This is especially good news since thin film solar cells are expected to be much less expensive to manufacture and install, and suitable for rooftop installations.  Research on graphene based solar cells might theoretically result in future solar cells with an efficiency up to 60%.

Some traditional utilities will be left flat-footed and will suddenly have to start worrying about load leveling. Fortunately, there are dozens of companies all vying to help utilities in this respect using various storage technologies, although perhaps a third of them have already gone belly up while waiting for the boom. Naturally, the utilities are losing money as people switch to solar and sell their excess power back to the grid, but overall, this is a good problem for us to have....no, it's a wonderful problem to have.

There is a similar story going on in wind power. Wind beat out natural gas power plant installations as well as coal plant installations last year--not only in the U.S., but even in China.  Here's an interesting article about the largest wind turbine yet. Here's an article describing what I believe is the most convincing and fascinating kite-like wind turbine yet conceived, in that it requires relatively less energy and materials to construct.

Okay, gotta go now. If you're interested in other fascinating articles like these, check out this site.

Tuesday, January 22, 2013

How To Reduce Crime

My proposed solutions to reducing crime are based on a very limited amount of research.  Some of these ideas may have already been tried without success (unbeknownst to me) and some ideas are undoubtedly already being implemented in some areas.

I'll start by laying out the beliefs and assumptions on which my proposed solutions are based, and then the proposed solutions themselves.  If you prefer, you can skip directly to the "Proposed Ways to Reduce Crime" section.


AUTHOR'S UNDERLYING BELIEFS AND ASSUMPTIONS

Cycle of Crime

The author believes there is a cycle of crime that starts when a child is born in the ghetto.  Even at birth, the child's IQ might already be impaired due to fetal alcohol syndrome, drug use, environmental toxins, poor nutrition, etc.  Then the child may experience unpredictable parental behavior, apathy and physical and emotional abuse, or may live in a dangerous environment with exposure to gang members who make crime look "cool" in an attempt to recruit the child, and who sneer at the idea of learning and bully or beat up anyone who doesn't talk and act like they do.  The child begins to mirror this self-destructive behavior, responds poorly to school, has a poor self-image, poor social skills, poor job qualifications and reduced economic opportunity.  This finally results in despair, further descent into drugs, prostitution and crime, imprisonment, more bad influences, a criminal record, prejudice and fear on the part of a potential employer who is reluctant to hire a felon, and finally, an ever worsening spiral of criminal behavior despite an initial desire on the part of the released criminal to cease from his life of crime.


Relationship Between Crime, Education and Environment

Research over the past 10 years has shown the most effective way to reduce both crime and recidivism is by literacy training and GED, or better yet, training felons to the level of having a 2-year college or vocational school degree.  This may seem surprising to some, but it gives the person some tools to actually function within society.  From a purely economic point of view, lack of education produces a lack of opportunity and poverty which, in turn, breeds crime.  This is supported by a wealth of statistics.  Beyond economic reasoning, it also supports the idea Plato proposed long ago that real knowledge becomes, in the end, a knowledge of goodness.  Or, to quote Proverbs 8:9, "[...my righteous words..]...are plain to him who understands, and right to those who find knowledge."  Moral instruction has always been seen as an essential component of learning--as an easier and shorter path to "goodness" than the school of hard knocks.  This instruction has traditionally come from a child's parents.

Of course, educating a criminal as part of an effort to reform him is still not as good as if the person had been educated from the time he were young and never became a criminal in the first place.  But why are we unsuccessful in doing this?

Part of the reason for the lack of education is, admittedly, that 11% of schoolchildren are said to have some type of educational disability that requires them to be involved in special education programs.  Often, this is an emotional disturbance (ED) problem, which falls under an umbrella of a whole host of behavioral disorders.  65% of ED students drop out of high school, and of these, 73% are arrested in 5 years.  70% of children in the juvenile justice system have ED.  Students with ED are twice as likely to become parents as students with other disabilities.  ED students require lots of extra attention from teachers and teachers' aides in order to progress through the school system, and they tend to disrupt the class and are often easily provoked to  violent behavior.  We don't know to what extent ED, like other issues such as lower IQ, is due to inherited diseases or merely the product of a child's environment.  However, any optimistic approach to dealing with this problem necessitates we assume the latter.

Statistics in California show that the child from a disadvantaged background has traditionally achieved at the rate of 0.7 of a year for every year of instruction. This means that the disadvantaged child falls further and further behind, at the rate of three months for every school year. Thus, at the end of the third grade, he is already a full year behind the middle-class student and when he enters his teenage years, he is two years behind, and about to become a statistic—a dropout.

Detroit has one of the highest crime rates in the U.S.  There are very few whites living in Detroit, family incomes have dropped by a third, over half of Detroit's children live in poverty, and there was a significant flight away from Detroit schools by families who could afford to move.  In the Detroit school system, 65% of students drop out of high school, which seems to imply that all the students have ED--although this might indeed be telling us that ED is often the result of living in a dangerous ghetto neighborhood without a stable, supportive home life.  Moreover, labeling kids as "ED"--as if it were some type of incurable disease--and putting them in Special Ed programs still doesn't appear to be solving the problem.

A map of crime in any city or county will tend to show crime hot spots where the disintegration of family is nearly complete, where unemployment is the norm, where good role models are nonexistent, and where the culture of crime is so well established that children born into this environment have an extraordinarily high likelihood of becoming a criminal.  They don't have a chance.  And like a cancer, these areas slowly metastasize, claiming one neighborhood after another.  It only takes one or two criminals to terrorize a neighborhood and intimidate its residents to the extent they may not even report crimes in progress.

Government efforts to give these disadvantaged kids a boost at a very early age are admirable and do some good, but are generally unsuccessful because they do not continue beyond kindergarten.  Head-start programs cost on average $9000 per pre-schooler, exceeding the average cost per year in a K-12 school.  While the program may help parenting skills, the overall positive affect on the child appears to disappear by the end of the first grade.  It does not raise IQ and it does not improve kids' readiness for later reading and math instruction once they start school.  Somewhat ironically, many critics argue that the money would benefit children more if it were actually used to give them additional class time at a later age such as during high school.

There is hope, however.  This article discusses characteristics and examples of successful charter schools that are actually getting impressive results, even for kids from the ghetto.  The schools teach teens how to act according to traditional, middle-class values, set and enforce exacting academic standards, and closely supervise student behavior, at the same time striving to be warm, caring places, where teachers and principals form paternal-like bonds with students. The new paternalistic schools are the most promising means yet for closing the nation's costly and shameful achievement gap.  They teach appropriate behaviors that are practically second nature to children with nurturing families and good peer relationships.  Extended hours and even boarding of students during the week are a common thread.  Any program that increases the proportion of time a student spends in a positive environment and reduces the time spent in a bad environment clearly helps, not to mention the effect of increased learning time.

There is a great deal of controversy about the extent to which violent video games make people more aggressive, and therefore more inclined to violent crime.  Some studies would seem to show incontrovertible evidence of cause and effect.  Others point to a seemingly small correlation between a single session of playing a violent video game and subsequent measured level of aggression, and poo poo the effect.  Here is a good article that fairly represents both sides of the argument.  My own opinion is that violent video game playing does promote aggressive behavior and, ultimately, crime.  I believe most research up to now has ignored the cumulative effect of video game playing--it's like saying the hypothesis "smoking causes cancer" is inconclusive and therefore not credible based on a study where you smoked only two cigarettes one time and you only coughed a couple times afterwards and otherwise felt relaxed--so actually, smoking makes you relaxed, so how can it be bad for your health?  Most of the video game studies used college students who were mature enough to have a well developed sense of right and wrong (and real versus imaginary) instead of using young impressionable kids from the ghetto.  Anyway it begs further study.  Here is another article that does suggest a cumulative effect from video game play.  Aside from statistical results, the realistic renderings of humans, blood and gore etc. taps into the very same primitive attraction to sadism and blood lust that people had when they went to the Roman arena.  In the author's opinion, this is the only possible explanation for why these games were created this way.  These games could just have easily have used non-human forms or less detailed and less violent depictions without affecting the game play itself in the least.  We know that if we imagine we are doing an activity--good or bad--it eventually makes it easier to do in real life, and video gaming is even more real than a daydream.  There is a reason--beyond exploitation and abuse of children--that selling child pornography is illegal, and the same reasoning should apply to video games.  It may be years before video games are conclusively fingered as contributing to violence, just as it was many years before smoking was clearly and conclusively recognized as being bad for one's health.  In the mean time, lobbying efforts and company-sponsored "research" can really be effective at purposely muddying the waters and questioning a study's conclusions.



Punishment, Rehabilitation and Monitoring

Prison keeps criminals off the streets for a time, but it has very limited effectiveness in terms of reforming criminals (and may even exacerbate the problem) for the following reasons, some of which are taken from this source.
---It teaches survival skills (violence, retaliation, dominance, etc.) that are the opposite to what is needed to thrive in the civilized world.
---It shields the felon from shame and remorse, and instead gives him a sense of defiance and solidarity with his fellow inmates.  It's a school for crime, where criminals are merely exposed to even worse attitudes and influences and come out worse criminals than when they entered.
   ---88% of offenders (Chicago statistics) have a prior arrest history; meaning recidivist offenders are responsible for the majority of crimes, implying that either prison rehab programs are not successfully rehabilitating criminals or prison release programs are not adequately preparing them for society...or both.
   ---The likelihood of being caught and imprisoned is perceived to be relatively low.  Research has shown that criminals typically judge "certainty" with a much higher weighting than "severity" or "length" when considering the consequences of bad behavior.
  ---Over 40% of prison inmates are functionally illiterate and are less likely to be rational and weigh consequences.  This is borne out by the fact that the national re-arrest rate is 63% (84% for juveniles), and most have a history of multiple arrests and convictions.
  ---The majority of crimes of inmates were behavioral, personality or addiction problems resulting in irrational acts--crimes for which incarceration has NOT been shown to be an effective deterrent.
  ---In some cases an inmate may actually see prison as more comfortable, cushy, predictable and structured than the miserable life he has experienced on the outside, especially if he is not equipped to cope and function in the real world.
  ---62% of prisoners are in prison for non-violent drug convictions.  Prison gives them a criminal record and a lifelong stigma that worsens their employment prospects, making it even more likely they'll progress further down the path to becoming real criminals as well as lifelong drug addicts.
  ---People in the U.S. make up 5% of the planet's population and 25% of the world's prisoners.  The rate of incarceration has doubled each decade since 1970.  One in every 32 individuals is subject to the criminal justice system, most of them multiple times.  Many prisons are so overcrowded that prisoners are being released purely because of this, further endangering society.  Clearly something is wrong.
  ---There is no concept of restitution or restorative justice.  Criminals naturally do not appreciate or put a value on housing, food, clothing, babysitting, education or rehabilitation programs if they pay nothing for it.  Instead, the average cost per prisoner is $129/day or $47,000 per year.  That costs every man, woman and child in the U.S. $350/yr to house these prisoners.  Prisoners are also isolated from the shame and guilt they would otherwise experience if they had to face the families of their victims.

The author believes in punishment, but also in rehabilitation and the opportunity for a new beginning.  Too often, a felon experiences indifference, low expectations, defiant solidarity with other criminals and subsequent disenfranchisement by society as a result of his incarceration, rather than caring compassion, discipline, rehabilitation/redemption and re-integration.  He believes that babies are generally not born to be criminals, with only a few exceptions.  Rather, their fundamental outlook is shaped by their environment more than their natural proclivities.  The author wants to believe that ultimately, the vast majority of humans, if given a chance, will desire and strive for usefulness, dignity and respect.  Unfortunately, a felon's limited time in prison often results in a lifetime filled with stigmatization and lacking a fair chance to gain employment and to succeed.  This is particularly tragic when we consider there are 25 million ex-felons on the streets of America today.  The high rate of recidivism means few businesses are willing to hire someone with a criminal record unless they are encouraged to do so and are shielded from liability--but this lack of opportunity for the ex-felon only increases the likelihood of more recidivism.

Increased used of community-based rehab programs, electronic monitoring and custom-tailored treatment programs is claimed to be lowering prison populations and reducing recidivism.  This trend appears to be on the rise.  It mirrors the author's belief that the absolute worst thing we can do is release a felon from prison and expect him suddenly to be a different person.  We should not condemn ex-cons with no money and no skills to no future.  Neither should be expect those guilty of impulse crimes such as sex offenders or drug addicts to suddenly no longer be tempted to repeat their crimes.  Finally, ex-felons have a much lower recidivism rate when they are released to a stable living environment and a network of caring family and/or friends.  Unfortunately, many do not have this to go back to.  For those ex-felons who are battling impulse behavior or addictions, monitoring devices may help, although care must be taken to make the device inconspicuous so as not to introduce a stigma to the wearer.


Detecting Crime and Identifying the Perpetrator

Studies show that camera surveillance of public spaces helps reduce local crime.  This is useful and beneficial so long as it does not violate privacy rights.
---This is expensive.  Operating and maintenance costs dwarf initial installation costs.
---Law-abiding citizens do not appreciate being monitored unless they are plagued by a crime threat in their neighborhood, and have had a part in approving the surveillance and its method.
---Some people may see another problem with indiscriminate surveillance of the general public--in the extreme case, it may eliminate crime, but for the wrong reasons.  A citizenry should learn to value and emulate universal human values and ethics instead of being conditioned to reject criminal instincts simply because they are otherwise likely to get caught and punished--otherwise, the very underpinning of civilization becomes artificial and precarious.  For instance, people could quickly revert to all man's worst vices with a vengeance if the surveillance were suddenly removed, just as a rebellious teen who has left the home of his authoritarian parents often "goes nuts" and gets into trouble.
---Harassing a criminal using area surveillance and monitoring may cause him to move or to shift his activities to a different neighborhood or town, but it doesn't necessarily change his intent.  To what extent this type of approach by itself actually lowers the overall incidence of crime in the long run, is debatable.
---State and national resources are needed, but the author believes that crime fighting based on monitoring is most effectively done using neighborhood and city based programs where those involved in the effort live near the criminal's place of residence and have a personal stake in its success.

Using surveillance vehicles to quell rowdiness and scare away drug dealers may help to keep a neighborhood safe.  Peoria, IL has found a new, low-budget way to fight crime: Park an unmanned, former Brink's truck bristling with video cameras in front of the dwellings of troublemakers.  "Police here call it the Armadillo. They say it has restored quiet to some formerly rowdy streets. Neighbors' calls for help have dropped sharply. About half of the truck's targets have fled the neighborhood.  "The truck is meant to be obnoxious and to cause shame," says Peoria Police Chief Steven Settingsgaard.  The Armadillo has helped alleviate problems like drug dealing that can make neighborhoods unlivable."  Again, though, this may make life miserable for the criminal and force him to move, but it doesn't necessarily mean he won't just terrorize some other neighborhood or city.

Some cities are taking full advantage of today's latest technology to fight crime.  For instance, East Orange, New Jersey has a crime rate that has fallen by 2/3 since 2004, and this is at least partly attributed to a number of high tech crime fighting technologies, from cameras with software that analyzes images and senses high-crime-risk behavior, to gunshot detection systems, to software that can sift and analyze crime data almost instantaneously.

There are other new or emerging crimefighting technologies, as indicted in this article that discusses things like vehicle slowdown systems, bullet analysis technology, license plate recognition systems, brain fingerprinting, etc.  Another article discusses remote sensing technology being developed for "detecting crime before it happens" based on physiological signs of, say, people in airports.  Nearly 40% of all killings go unsolved.  In many shootings, bullet casings are the only tangible evidence police have.  Micro-stamping technology could change that, although the gun lobby is fiercely opposed.

Chicago homicide statistics point to some additional ideas for how to fight crime:
--Curfew of a parole or gang member between the hours of 7pm and 5am may potentially curb the 70% of gun violence that otherwise occurs during those hours.
--Gang altercations cause >30% of homicides in Chicago, and 60% of offenders are males between the ages of 17-25.  (Anti-gang initiatives and intervention programs obviously help, but the author wonders if programs to eliminate idleness might be the most helpful...idleness being the devil's playground.)
---Most murder weapons used by unknown assailants are "straw purchases" with filed-off serial numbers and/or are guns which are not properly registered by the person committing the murder.  We need more effective methods for finding and eliminating these guns, such as serialized ammunition.  (The gun lobby is opposed to this also.)
--Whites account for only 5.3% of all murders, even though they own more handguns than either Blacks or Hispanics.  Facts like this unfortunately fuel prejudice, but they also indirectly emphasize the correlation between gun violence, lack of education and poverty.  One takeaway is that in addition to education, we may need to develop anti-violence programs specifically tailored to high-risk groups, but based on risk factors other than race, so we don't profile good citizens just because of their skin color.
--Chicago has one of the highest rates of suicides, and it has risen again this year, with people who are 15-24 yrs old most at risk.  In many cases where the problem is partly environmental, education and opportunity for employment may address this problem just as it address criminality.



PROPOSED WAYS TO REDUCE CRIME

Note:  These proposals are not necessarily my own, but rather proposals based on opinions I agree with, from both conservative and liberal sources.

1.  INCREASE TIME SPENT IN SCHOOL EACH DAY BY AT-RISK STUDENTS:  First and foremost, prevent crime by nipping it in the bud.  This cannot be overemphasized.  Educate young people, teach them coping and social skills and allow them to know what it feels like to contribute to society.  This is far more effective and less costly than pursuing criminals and attempting to rehabilitate them once they're incarcerated.
     a)  Do not allow schools to graduate a low-performing student just to get rid of him.  Statistically, it's almost the same thing as releasing a new criminal to prey on society.  If a student does not cooperate, arrange for him to attend reform school until he is at least 22 years old.  (Truly mentally handicapped students are an exception.)
     b)  If a student falls behind, mandate late afternoon and evening self-paced work time at the school every evening.  If the student still falls behind, mandate year-round school as well.  Also, provide this as an option to all motivated students who want it, even if they don't need it.  Make full use of self-paced, individual learning via computer and internet courses to reduce costs and the need for additional personnel.
    c)  Increase the use of charter or boarding schools for students from low-income areas, patterned after the most successful schools which are showing good results.
    d)  Require a certain minimum grade point average (i.e., "B") to be maintained as a requirement for playing in high school sports programs, no exceptions.  Learning must take priority over sports, and producing "criminals with good coordination" based on a myth of sports stardom is just plain stupid.  Also, deny a drivers license to students if they do not demonstrate at least the equivalent of a 10th grade reading level or if they get into trouble.
    e)  Continue mandated schooling of the student until 22 years old if necessary in order to get a GED equivalent and adequate vocational training.  Knowledge of this requirement will be a clear message to students that there is a price to pay for goofing off and ignoring their studies.
   f)  Ideally, require 6 months of conscription by the student after high school for every student--i.e., community or military service, following the example of some other countries.  Allow students to engage in qualifying extra-curricular activities for credit towards this time while in school if he/she wishes to satisfy the service requirement in less time.
   g)  Require students guilty of excessive truancy to wear an electronic monitor for the next 12 months, with enforced curfews as well, i.e.; from 7pm to 5am.
   g)  Put the onus for progress on the student as well as the teacher.  If the student is motivated to learn, it will be much easier for the teacher to be motivated to teach.
   i)  In high-risk school districts, provide a place for students to "hang out" in a safe and supportive environment at the school every evening and engage in supervised sports, social activities and learning activities.  Get parents engaged to help in this endeavor and to assist in transporting kids home.

2.  HELP STUDENTS PLAN FOR (MANDATE??) VOCATIONAL SCHOOL OR SOME OTHER JOB TRACK:
Encourage at-risk students to enroll in a 2-year vocational school program (and provide financial assistance if needed) if they don't plan to go to college and do not already have employable, demonstrable skills, so they can learn a useful trade.  Some credit could be given for internship or journeyman experience in a business, if applicable.  There is no excuse for high unemployment while at the same time companies and businesses are having trouble finding good workers.

3.  MAKE PRISONS MORE NEARLY SELF-SUPPORTING WHILE EMPLOYING PRISONERS
    a)  Add vocational education schools and drug rehab centers to prisons, if they don't already exist.
    b)  Convene a panel or think tank to come up with a list of all the types of useful work that prisoners (and parolees) could perform, such as harvesting vegetables and fruit, cleaning up and painting slum areas or trashed apartments, etc.
    c)  Invite companies to set up operations next to the prisons where able-bodied prisoners can choose between solitary confinement and working 40 hrs/wk while wearing monitors.  Alternatively, put prisoners on electronic chain gangs to do manual labor along roadsides or doing other types of outdoor work identified as being appropriate.
    d)  Require an average of 4 additional hours devoted to classes and rehab every day for every prisoner.
    e)  Use a portion of prisoners' wages to help pay for their incarceration, schooling and rehab expenses.
    f)  Require prisoners to wear electronic devices to monitor, move and subdue them; use fewer guards.
    g)  Once a prisoner is released, allow him to continue working at the same or similar facility while he's looking for a job, albeit in a different building or on a different crew where he is not exposed to the prisoners.  Provide him room and board (for a fee) if needed.  Allow him time to build up a nest egg to make it easier for him to get an apartment, etc. once he gets on his own.

2.  USE TECHNOLOGY TO MONITOR PAROLES AND ELIMINATE RECIDIVISM
    a)  Start a program where a trained volunteer visits each incarcerated person, chats with him and provides encouragement to him at least once a week.
    b)  Incorporate an extended probationary period with an electronic ankle or wrist monitor into a prisoner's release program, based on his criminal record and history.  This may do more to eliminate recidivism and empty our prisons than anything else, other than education.
    c)  Provide different monitors tailored to different problems, whether for addiction, violence, thievery, sex crimes, etc.  Also, develop monitors for different levels of violent behavior, i.e., from mere physiological monitors, to GPS monitors, to monitors with cameras and microphones, to restraining monitors that stun the wearer if it hears a cry of "help".
   d)  Mandate inconspicuous monitors to be worn by drug addicts, sex offenders, etc. for many years to life.  The monitors would be tailored to their situation, would help them avoid temptation and would protect the public as well.  It is likely that sex offenders may even prefer this as an alternative to being identified as such and stigmatized wherever they go...and drug addicts may actually find this to be the only truly successful way to avoid a relapse.

3.  REINSTATE THE LAW OUTLAWING THE POSSESSION OF ASSAULT WEAPONS that expired in 2004.  This will require that we take on the NRA and gun manufacturers.  One approach may be to raise anti-gun lobbying funds and to publicly expose and shame every congressman who is "owned" by the NRA.  Another avenue may be a threat of civil lawsuits against gun manufacturers and sellers, similar to what was done with tobacco companies.  Short of an outright ban, another approach may be to publicly identify and maintain a database of all owners of assault weapons (like the sex offender database) so that employers and neighbors can access this information, require periodic safety and storage training and psychological profile testing, and ensure that weapons and ammunition are serialized.

4.  USE TECHNOLOGY TO MAKE GUN AND OTHER CRIMES EASIER TO TRACE
    a)  Mandate serialized bullets and/or micro-stamping technology
    b)  Implement gunshot detection systems in high crime areas
    c)  Prosecute gun owners if they "lose" their weapon or it is improperly stored and gets "stolen" or is sold without a background check, and is then used in the commission of a crime.
    d)  Institute biennial gun storage inspection programs and reward tipsters.
    e)  Develop and use sophisticated remote, non-invasive psycho-physiological sensors that track eye movement, voice, breathing, heartbeat, etc., to further improve lie detection during questioning of suspects.
    f)  Develop a sophisticated database of criminals, parolees and ex-felons linking them to factors like crime methods, weapons, types of victims, associates in crime, types of locations frequented, voice samples, DNA information, shoe size, fingerprints, travel habits, previous crimes, last place of residence, etc. so that crime scene evidence can be quickly used to generate possible suspects.

5.  BAN VIOLENT VIDEO GAMES such as Call of Duty, based on damning evidence of a cumulative cause and effect relationship to aggressive behavior.  Encourage parents to limit video playing time of even innocuous video games, based on their depriving kids of more socially beneficial activities and no redeeming value.  Banning violet video games is admittedly a tough sell, since lawmakers have failed to do this despite past attempts.

6.  HARASS DRUG DEALERS AND NEIGHBORHOOD NUISANCES:
    a)  As is being done in Peoria, IL, this method of surveillance targets areas with surveillance vehicles as a results of requests by neighbors, and its primary purpose is to shame the offending residents, quell noise and stop them from dealing drugs in that location.  While it doesn't reform a criminal, it makes his life more miserable.  More importantly, it gives a neighborhood a tool to fight crime, just a phone call away.  Since the monitoring is very obvious to all, there are no invasion of privacy issues to worry about with this technique.
    b)  An on-line "blacklist" (with a map) of the names of such offenders who have created neighborhood problems should also be compiled and maintained by the police department after the second offense, to alert landlords, employers, new neighbors and others.  The threat of being on this blacklist would serve as a further deterrent.  This is one way of addressing minor crime before it becomes violent crime.

7.  INVOLVE NEIGHBORHOOD RESIDENTS IN HIGH-TECH CRIME FIGHTING
This is based on the concept of crowd-sourcing.  A very inexpensive community--and possibly nationwide--voluntary program could be instituted for residents of all neighborhoods, not just high-risk neighborhoods.  A resident could be provided with an inexpensive USB web camera with night vision (available for less than $20) to be mounted on the inside of their front window (facing the street).  Using an existing PC owned by the resident, the camera could store an image every second to the PC's hard drive memory, which would always maintain 48 hours worth of time-stamped pictures.  Pictures for which no motion were detected (i.e., nearly identical sequential pictures) would be culled to reduce hard drive storage requirements, and this would also enable longer-term storage; i.e., for two weeks instead of two days.  A sophisticated software package would be used by the police to piece together time-stamped photos from different sources, so that if a crime were reported such as a child abduction, shooting, drug deal, etc., the police could literally "follow" the criminal's actions and movements through town and possibly even allow them to identify a getaway person/vehicle travelling to other towns, based on estimated time, picture of vehicle, etc.  The software would be able to track movement from a crime scene, whether a vehicle or a fleeing person, and be able to request particular time/date and location-stamped photos to aid in it's reconstruction of a perpetrator's escape route.  The beauty of this system is that (i) It allows an absolutely, unbelievably gargantuan amount of data to be available to the police department to use in solving crimes, but without overloading the system.  (ii) If implemented correctly, it would not pose invasion of privacy issues.  Only select pieces of time and location-stamped data from each computer's hard drive would be sent to the police database via the internet.  Tracking of an individual's movement from a crime scene would involve the implicit approval of each computer's owner as well as the explicit approval of the prosecuting attorney for each search request, so people would not be under arbitrary surveillance.  The nature and extent of all such activity would be logged and made publicly available shortly have the investigation were completed--again, to ensure no abuse of the system.  Due to the amount of data generated, the information thus compiled would necessarily be temporary, and its sheer size and the way it would be distributed among many people would inherently discourage improper use by individuals.   (iii) This voluntary program could be implemented independently or as part of an extremely effective neighborhood watch program.  (iv) This program would be far more powerful, far more robust, far less likely to be vandalized, and far less intrusive than a system where the police install surveillance cameras on the tops of utility poles, etc.  (v) The difference in operating and maintenance cost would likewise be truly staggering.  The crowd-sourced surveillance costs would be perhaps 3 orders of magnitude lower.  (vi) Other organizations such as real estate organizations, taxing authorities, mapping companies, insurance companies, etc. could also request photos from the resident, but only with his consent as well as possibly paying a small fee.







Saturday, January 19, 2013

Gun Control Arguments, Pro & Con

As if there were a need for more posts on this subject...!  I'll pile on anyway, but hopefully a redeeming feature of this post will be that I will propose some potential solutions to gun violence (in addition to just stricter gun regulations) in another post on "How to Reduce Crime."

Note:  These arguments are labelled as "conservative" and "liberal"; however, the author realizes this oversimplifies things.  Many conservatives may hold opinions labelled here as "liberal", and vice versa.

I.  THE "CONSERVATIVE" VIEWPOINT ON GUN CONTROL:

   Guns don't kill, people kill.  In a way, this is supported by the Chicago crime statistics, in that 11% of murders were stabbings, which (it is supposed) would likely increase somewhat if guns were not available, depending on the circumstances of the crime.  Also (here's the racist-sounding argument), only 5.6% of murders are committed by white people, even though a larger percentage of whites own guns than Blacks or Hispanics.  So the gun ownership itself is not what causes gun crime.  Sure, "crazy" people shouldn't have guns--but law-abiding folks with guns shouldn't be punished because of the "crazy" people.
   The Second Amendment expressly defends the right of the people to "keep and bear arms".  It is often cited  as being included for the purpose of allowing a country's citizens to overthrow their government if it becomes tyrannical.  It was no doubt inspired by a recollection of the "Glorious Revolution" in England in which King James--who attempted to disarm many Protestants--was deposed by William of Orange, a Dutch King who was invited into England and took power in a near-bloodless coup.
   The Second Amendment has been disputed throughout its history, but it has been consistently held up under attack as a safeguard to gun ownership.  Gun control laws are often seen as a "slippery slope" where many view such laws as the first step in outlawing guns and ultimately "taking citizens' guns away."
   Existing gun control regulations don't work (Exhibit A:  Chicago).  Often, they are not even effectively enforced.  Why pile onto something that has already been shown "not to work"?  Besides, every time there's a government initiative to tighten gun control laws, this only increases paranoia and energizes people to flock to gun shows and buy even more guns and ammo.  On top of that, criminals who already have unregistered guns probably won't even be aware of the new gun laws, much less be affected by them.
   Guns are an essential means of protection.  We can't depend on the police, they only investigate crimes after they've already been committed.  Look at all the situations where violence could have been avoided if the victim had carried a gun.  Based on (their) statistics, concealed carry is an effective deterrent, and such holders are typically good citizens.
   The solution to incidents like Sandy Hook is to fight fire with fire--i.e., place armed guards at all schools, arm the kindergarten teachers and principal, have a militia of armed citizens at the ready.  This will make any potential offender think twice.  (NRA's solution.)
   "Talk of gun control legislation is just a sideshow to distract from other, more important issues.  Nothing's going to come from it, just like nothing came of Columbine or Virginia Tech.  A useless, cynical and futile legislative effort."
   There is a much darker "argument"--that probes the depths of our own apathy and prejudice.  We are all susceptible to the underlying attitude.  It is never written or spoken, and yet it may be the most common reason for apathy on gun control.  It goes like this:  Let the criminals kill each other off; they're not in my neighborhood, so I'll turn a blind eye.  It's a cruel attitude for which we all may pay someday.
   The most emotionally-charged and vociferous arguments against stricter gun control laws are made by the most extreme gun proponents.  For the sake of completeness, these "arguments" should be included, since they often dominate the rhetoric.  (For example, asking why Obama thinks his children need security protection while he rejects putting armed guards in schools.)  These arguments are based on emotion, paranoia and prejudice rather than logic.  Typically, they reflect one or more of the following attitudes:
   ---Conspiracy Theory:  i.e., "Sandy Hook was a staged event enacted as part of a government conspiracy to justify taking away our guns."
   ---Prejudice:  "Obama is a Socialist, a Communist, a Nazi, an Islamic Jihadist, a Non-citizen, a (N-word) who wants to wage a race war all wrapped into one.  I'm against whatever he's for!"
   ---Flag Waving:  "I'm a true patriot.  If they take my gun away, America is finished.  Over my dead body!"
   ---Prepping for Armageddon:  Attempts at gun control reform are attempts by the "Beast" or "New World Order (or _______) to disarm us and take over America!  It's every man for himself.  I'll be ready!
  ---Religious Defense:  Having and using guns for my protection is my God-given, Christian right!  (This is perhaps the most preposterous argument of all.  Perhaps it is meant to evoke the image of a religious crusader who's facing a threat that his sword will be taken away.)

More moderate conservatives don't cater to these last arguments, but the NRA nevertheless fans these emotions with its aggressive rhetoric.


II.  THE "LIBERAL" VIEWPOINT ON GUN CONTROL:

   It's technically true that guns don't kill, people do.  However, Liberals find such arguments hollow.  After all, guns make it much easier and more tempting for criminals to shoot people or commit suicide, whether premeditated or more often, on an impulse or in a moment of passion.  A criminal with a grudge who possesses a weapon that makes murder quick, easy and convenient and easier to slip away is analogous to a thief who has the key to your house.  Oh, but "keys don't rob you, people do!"
   While conservatives are always saying "don't let crazy people have guns", this is an impossible proposition. That guy in your neighborhood that nobody likes--is he a harmless crank or a psychotic killer?  How do you prove this either way, until he kills someone?  Statistically speaking, a certain percentage of handgun owners (some would say a disproportionate share) are mentally unstable.  It's ludicrous to think we can just imprison all the eccentric folks due to the possibility they might purchase a gun and kill somebody.  And of course, the NRA would naturally be the first to oppose any psychological test as a condition of gun ownership.
   Liberals don't buy the argument that guns protect people from their government.  Hitler greatly relaxed the strict gun laws in Germany rather than tightening them--obviously for his own ends.  If the Jews had had the opportunity to use guns to defend themselves, a national emergency would have been declared, they would have been branded as Communist conspirators, and they would have quickly been slaughtered by Hitler's military, SS and Gestapo in a very brief and bloody war.  This would have actually saved Hitler a lot of "trouble".  (After all, entire countries like Poland and France were overpowered in a few days by Hitler, how could the Jews possibly have stopped him?)
   If a government is not potentially capable of overpowering and/or disarming its own citizens, it is also not capable of maintaining order or defending itself against a foreign power, and is thus doomed.  A government won't be overthrown by angry cranks with guns, it will be overthrown as a consequence of its institutions having crumbled (i.e., from lack of funds and corruption) and its legitimacy with its own citizens and citizen soldiers having been lost.
   Many foreign governments of industrialized countries have either outlawed guns or have very strict gun control laws, and their democracies appear to be at least as stable and impervious to extremism and despotism as our own.  Moreover--and importantly--the incidence of gun violence is almost totally nonexistent compared to the U.S.  Conversely, countries without such laws--and with the toxic combination of ignorance, poverty and unrestricted movement of guns--are typically violent, chaotic, and susceptible to wanton violence and genocide by gangs, warlords, terrorists and drug cartels.  Historical analysis of crime in these same countries prior to the proliferation of guns shows there were far fewer violent deaths, whether by guns or any other means.
   Our founding fathers who passed the Second Amendment did not anticipate the asymmetrical advantage of assault weapons.  A paranoid kook with a semi-automatic in his house is not the same thing as a well-regulated militia, and the concept of democracy becomes a farce if one person with a machine gun can overpower 100 of his fellow citizens who have only handguns or slingshots.  If members of the Whiskey rebellion (that Washington crushed) had had a stash of the most deadly weapons available at the time, this country may have descended into anarchy.    There is only one use of an assault weapon, and it's not hunting or self-defense--therefore, such weapons have no place in the hands of most citizens.  While some owners of such weapons are merely collectors, many others are believed to be "preppers", survivalists, conspiracy theorists, criminals, members of drug cartels, religious or political fanatics, or people with some type of undiagnosed mental disorder or personality disorder.
   Gun ownership greatly increases the likelihood of a "successful" suicide by gunshot, which is the second leading cause of death in the United States, accounting for 53% of all suicides.  2/3 of all gun-related deaths in the U.S. are suicides.  70% of suicides took less than 1 hr between the decision to commit suicide and its accomplishment.  90% of people who actually survive a suicide attempt do not repeat the attempt, which supports the fact that most suicides are impulsive acts resulting from an immediate but temporary crisis or stressor.  Statistics show a far greater risk of suicide to members of the household of a gun owner, especially where the gun is not unloaded and securely locked up.  The ironic conclusion is that you may be more likely to die from a gunshot wound if you own a gun than if you don't own a gun.  And this doesn't even take into account accidental shooting deaths.
   Gun control laws admittedly don't prevent all murders, just as traffic laws do not prevent all traffic fatalities.  This does not mean we shouldn't enact what reasonable laws we can in order to reduce the number of deaths.  While it's true that a portion of guns used in violent crime--typically in situations where the assailant is unknown--are committed using unregistered guns, the majority of homicides still do not fall into this category, at least for handguns.
   It's true that significant number of gun crimes--especially where the assailant is unknown--are committed by people whose guns are not legally registered and/or an illegal transfer has taken place and/or the serial number on the gun has been filed off.  This is actually the strongest argument for banning assault weapons.  A certain percentage of legal, registered guns always falls into the hands of criminals due to straw purchases...it's a foregone conclusion.  If assault weapons are allowed to proliferate, the situation will get much, much worse than it already is.  And assault weapons shootings won't be mostly limited to ghettos and domestic assaults, either.  It will affect all of us.
  The NRA is arguably the most powerful lobbying force on Capital Hill, and they are well funded by gun owners and gun manufacturers.  They spent over $3 million on lobbying while gun control advocates spent $200,000.  They do not represent mainstream American opinions or attitudes.  It's at least partly about greed and manipulation by an industry of death that has spun out of control.
   Conservatives point out that existing gun control laws are ineffective and are not even being properly enforced now.  However, liberals would point out that the NRA itself has been responsible for blocking effective legislation as well as its enforcement at every turn, so this charge is seen as extremely cynical.
   Statistics compiled by conservatives purportedly show a lower incidence of gun violence in states with concealed carry laws, but upon closer examination, there is little evidence to suggest that concealed carry laws either increase or decrease gun crime.
   The argument that gun violence could have been prevented if the victim had just possessed a gun...is similar to the argument that all our problems would be solved if we all just had winning lottery tickets...or to the argument that if all the good guys participated in gun training and were quicker in a duel, the bad guys would never shoot them in the back.
   The solution is not more guns.  Placing armed guards at all schools like Sandy Hook, or arming the kindergarten teachers and principal, or having a militia of armed citizens at the ready is NOT the solution.  Contrary to what the NRA contends, this will not deter a potential offender, since these people typically are not in their right mind in the first place, and plan to end their own lives anyway, and also possess the element of surprise to their advantage.  Not to mention, this is an impractical, costly "solution" that further endangers the students by introducing guns into the schools and that also turns America into a virtual police state.
   If the senseless slaughtering of dozens of innocent children doesn't wake us up, what will?


III.  AUTHOR'S VIEWPOINT

I am not a gun enthusiast, and I admittedly lean towards the liberal viewpoint--I would not even have a problem if all handguns were outlawed, except for security personnel...of course, this is not realistic.  I also acknowledge that a few of the conservative arguments do have validity, but I am nevertheless solidly in favor of stricter gun control laws.  At the same time, it would be wise to clarify the meaning of the Second Amendment, once and for all.  After all, lawmakers have been debating its meaning and relevance to our times ever since it was passed.  Perhaps we need another amendment clarifying that it is shall be legal for citizens to own weapons of self-defense or hunting, and clarifying what characteristics of a weapon would characterize it as such, or alternatively, as a "weapon of force multiplication", and thus a prohibited weapon to be used only by the military.  Sadly, I don't know if this would actually quell the storm of controversy or whether it would simply stir the pot even more.

We already have nearly 300 millions guns in circulation in the U.S.  A certain percentage of all gun types is bound to fall into the wrong hands.  For this reason, I agree with the liberal viewpoint that we really do not want to let assault weapons proliferate in the same way as other guns, or the situation will get much, much worse.  Outlawing assault weapons should not be controversial--we already outlawed them from 1994 to 2004; we just made the mistake of allowing this law to expire.  The expiration provision was undoubtedly bought and paid for by the gun lobby.

Tougher gun control laws are necessary, even if they reduce total gun deaths by only 10%--that's still 860 fewer homicides and 1940 fewer suicides.  Not to mention an even greater reduction in gun-related injuries and a corresponding reduction in the staggering emotional and economic costs associated with gun violence.  Some of the conservative arguments illuminate the limitations of gun control laws, and I believe additional things will need to be done to solve the problem of gun violence--and crime--in general.

The author believes these homicide statistics (mostly for Chicago) provide some key insight into how to combat gun crime.  (The author suggests some solutions in his upcoming post "How to Reduce Crime.")
---70% of murders take place between 7pm and 5am
---30%+ of homicides are related to gang altercations
---93% of offenders are male, 60% between the ages of 17-25
---88% of offenders had a prior arrest history; meaning recidivist offenders are responsible for the majority of crimes
---The majority of murder weapons by unknown assailants are "straw purchases" with filed-off serial numbers and are not properly registered by the person committing the murder.  People who sell those guns to them without a background check etc. are not currently held liable, because they can say "I lost my gun" or "It was stolen".
---Whites account for only 5.3% of all murders, even though they own more handguns than either Blacks or Hispanics.  (Facts like this fuel prejudice, but my purpose is rather to draw a correlation between gun violence, lack of education and poverty.)
---Chicago has one of the highest rates of suicides, and it has risen again this year, with people who are 15-24 yrs old most at risk

I Wish I Had Known

  By Kevin Kelly https://kottke.org/22/04/kevin-kelly-103-bits-of-advice-i-wish-i-had-known 103 Bits of Advice I Wish I Had Known Today...