Was the Fed's monetary policy effective or not under Bernanke? It's time to assess "Quantitative Easing" (QE1 and QE2) and its effect on the U.S. economy. The original purpose of QE was ostensibly to re-capitalize the banks, stimulate the money supply and get banks to loan more money. What did it actually do?
1. Did the banks' balance sheet improve? Yes. Check.
2. Did we avert a worse financial crisis? Possibly, at least temporarily. The problem, of course, is we can't really know what would have happened without QE, or to what extent some alternative approach would have been better.
3. Did banks make more loans? No. If anything, fewer loans were made, especally to consumers. A dismal failure in this respect.
4. Did the banks invest the $1.6 trillion (that constituted QE1 and QE2) in a way that benefited their own interests? Yes. Much of the money went toward improving their balance sheet. The rest was invested U.S. treasuries, and perhaps some in speculative and overseas investments. The interest on the treasuries are both "risk free" and pay a non-zero interest rate, which means the banks are getting a free stream of money from Uncle Sam--at our expense.
5. Was there also a benefit to the American people? Hardly. A boost to the stock market was only temporary, as expected. The public mood is still negative. Our national debt has mushroomed even further. There was no increase in lending for homes or businesses.
6. Was QE a fair proposition? No. Not only do the banks now have a stream of free, reliable income from the Treasuries they bought, QE1 and QE2 also brought interest rates down so low that responsible savers are being penalized at the expense of those who created the crisis in the first place. Not to mention, we essentially paid the big banks cash for their near-worthless loan portfolios. In effect, instead of shutting them down or splitting them up, we rewarded the biggest bank offenders for their irresponsible behavior. A bad precedent.
7. Was the goal of creating modest inflation achieved? No. Instead, we have stagflation, which is the worst of both worlds; i.e., rising prices for things we have to buy, lowering values for things we have loans against or could use as collateral to borrow against, and wage deflation, and low interest rates on our savings. We've pumped money into the pockets of wealthy bankers, who are, by definition, the most likely people to hoard their money and the least likely to stimulate the economy and promote inflation by spending money on useful products.
8. In conjunction with QE1 and QE2, did we punish the biggest offenders who caused the financial crisis? Nope. Did we at least restrain banks from rewarding their failed managers and executives with obscene bonuses when we recapitalized them? Nope. While laying off thousands of employees (due to little real, legitimate banking activity), banks set aside 8% more for bonuses in 2011, and bonuses are expected to go up another 5-15% in 2012.
9. Did QE save any jobs? Perhaps a few. But I would limit this to the money given to companies like GE, that had productive, non-financial arms that actually produced useful product rather than just "clever" investment strategies that sucked money out of some people's pockets and deposited into other people's pockets. (Also, the government bailed out GM, effectively preventing a meltdown of the entire U.S. auto industry, but that action was not part of QE.)
10. Is QE still seen as legitimate, and not a disguised form of money printing?
One might ask, why did the Fed administer QE1 and QE2 instead of just "printing" money and giving it to the banks--or better yet, using it to reduce the debt? The reason is that "printing money" is what poorer developing countries do to make up their revenue shortfall each year. It's transparent devaluation of the currency, and it typically alarms the countries who are buying such debt, and greatly reduces its desirability, thus forcing such countries to greatly increase their interest payments. This kind of drastic inflationary spiral could be disastrous for the U.S. economy.
But secretly, our government may believe that "printing money" with the stroke of a computer key is the easiest way to avoid increasing our debt without raising taxes or cutting spending; i.e., to inflate our way out of debt by diluting our currency. However, if our creditors (both domestic and international) saw this happening and stopped buying our debt, we would suddenly have to cover more of our $1.1 trillion budget shortfall (for 2012) ourselves via the "printed" money. This, in turn, would spook investors even more, who would drive down the value of U.S. debt treasuries and require the U.S. government to pay more interest on new issues. Millions of holders of government bonds would be wiped out, possibly overnight, as nearly $16 trillion in U.S. public debt instruments would lose substantial value. (This debt represents $139,000 for each U.S. taxpayer, or about 20% of the current value of the total assets of the American people and government.) Even a 20% drop in the value of U.S. treasuries would wreak havoc on the world's financial systems. The Fed probably sees this as a kind of rapid downward spiral or "armageddon" that they want to avoid, much like what has been happening in Greece--except in this case, it would have a truly profound negative effect on the entire planet.
So, to reiterate, the Fed is NOT EXACTLY printing money--this would upset the applecart with respect to how our credit is perceived in the world, and could cause rampant inflation, collapse in the value of U.S. debt, and subsequent currency collapse, with worldwide ramifications.
However, the definition of "printing money" presents a very fine line, and QE1 and QE2 are about as close as you can get to it while still saying that you are not actually "printing money". The only reason we don't call it "printing money" is that (1) It is ostensibly used for monetary policy, implying that the Fed will sell the bonds they purchased at a later time; (2) QE is only used as a temporary, not ongoing, measure. This sounds an awful lot like a desperate and guilty counterfeiter telling himself "I will only just print $1000 more in my basement, and I won't print any more money after this. Later when I'm back on my feet, I'll assuage my guilt by burning $1000 (in $100 bills) of my accumulated savings at that time. So I'm not really printing money, I'm just giving myself a temporary, zero-interest loan."
Fat chance. If, in reality, QE is ongoing and/or if the Fed does not sell its purchased bonds later, then skeptics are completely correct is characterizing QE as "printing money". The one salient difference is that, instead of using the proceeds to pay down our U.S. debt, the Fed is giving the proceeds to the biggest banks.
Bottom line: QE benefited the big banks and no one else, while diluting the value of our currency in the same way as directly "printing money" would have.
So why don't we already have rampant currency devaluation? It's all perception. Greece was going along fine for years...until suddenly it wasn't. Enron was going like gangbusters...until suddenly it wasn't. Madoff's giant ponzi scheme was doing quite nicely for many years...until suddenly it wasn't. All it takes is one major investor or country to ring the alarm bell by stating that it no longer intends to invest in U.S. debt--protesting that the U.S. is simply "printing money" in the guise of monetary policy--and suddenly there's a chain reaction where everyone panics and U.S. credit implodes. Positive perception can prop up a rotten edifice for a long time before it suddenly goes negative and the edifice likewise suddenly implodes. Psychology and emotions seem to rule over logic and mathematics, even in--or especially in--matters of financial credit.
Okay, this is probably as close to alarmist talk as I want to get. I still strongly believe in America's future and I still think we may be able to avoid or work through such a crisis, if only because so many other voices are preaching financial armageddon. Many U.S. companies are doing quite well. Also, our own problems are shared by many other countries, and so are not unique.